The Player, The Moment

Darren Sproles was 5-foot-6, maybe 180 pounds on a generous day, and heard “too small” his entire career. In 2003, he made that argument look ridiculous: he led the entire nation with 1,986 rushing yards, added enough receiving and return yardage to total 2,735 all-purpose yards, still a Big 12 single-season record more than two decades later, and finished fifth in Heisman voting. He capped it by leading Kansas State to its first conference title since 1934, rushing for 235 yards in the Big 12 Championship Game in an upset of the No. 1 team in the country, Oklahoma. The signature play of his career came in that exact game: taking a handoff, spinning clean out of All-American cornerback Derrick Strait’s grip, and turning it into a 55-yard gain. Oklahoma’s own head coach, Bob Stoops, described it afterward like he’d watched something that shouldn’t have been possible.

By the time he left Kansas State, Sproles held 23 school and conference records, including 4,979 career rushing yards (still 11th all-time in NCAA history) and 6,812 career all-purpose yards, a Big 12 record that also ranks 19th all-time nationally, ahead of almost every Power Five player who’s ever done it. He went on to a 15-year NFL career, a Super Bowl ring, and retired 5th all-time in NFL all-purpose yardage.

There was no NIL in 2003. A player who spent his entire career being told he was too small to matter, then went out and became one of the most productive all-purpose weapons the sport has ever seen, made zero dollars off any of it.

So what would that season be worth today? I built an estimate.

Read more

The Player, The Moment

Terrell Suggs was a high school running back before Arizona State converted him to defensive end. In 2002, his junior season, he set an NCAA single-season sack record that still stands more than two decades later: 24 sacks, shattering the previous record of 17.5. He also led the nation with 31.5 tackles for loss, was a unanimous first-team All-American, won the Nagurski, Hendricks, and Lombardi awards, and helped drag Arizona State to an 8-6 record, its first winning season since 1997. He finished his college career with 44 sacks and 65.5 tackles for loss, both still ASU records. The sack mark isn’t just his record anymore; it’s the record, full stop, and nobody has come within striking distance of it since.

There was no NIL in 2002. The single greatest pass-rushing season college football has ever seen; one that’s now outlasted every other record on this list in terms of how long it’s stood unbroken, produced zero off-field income for the player who authored it.

So what would that season be worth today? I built an estimate, and this one comes with a real surprise buried in the numbers.

Read more

The Player, The Moment

On October 22, 2016, Patrick Mahomes threw for 734 yards and ran for 85 more against Oklahoma; 819 total yards, an FBS record that still stands. He did it on 88 pass attempts, one shy of the all-time record, completing 52 of them for five touchdowns and adding two more scores on the ground. Texas Tech and Oklahoma combined for 1,708 yards of total offense that night, still the most in any Big 12 game ever played. Mahomes lost. Oklahoma won 66-59.

That game is the headline, but it wasn’t a one-off. Mahomes led the entire nation in total offense as a junior in 2016, throwing for 5,052 yards. He closed his college career with 586 yards and six touchdowns in his final game. He did it all as a three-sport athlete out of high school who was also drafted by the Detroit Tigers as a baseball pitcher. And he did it all on a Texas Tech team that finished the 2016 season 5-7; no bowl game, no signature win, nothing but the numbers themselves to point to.

There was no NIL in 2016. The single most jaw-dropping statistical season in recent college football history produced zero off-field income for the player who authored it, largely because the team around him didn’t win enough games to make anyone outside Lubbock pay attention while it was happening.

So what would that season be worth today, when a highlight reel travels a lot further than a win-loss record does? I built an estimate.

Read more

The Big 12 enters 2026 with Texas Tech as the clear favorite and several other teams (BYU, Utah, Arizona, Houston) positioned as contenders. Heisman voters historically favor high-volume producers on winning teams, especially quarterbacks and workhorse backs who put up eye-popping numbers while their squad stays in the national conversation. Here are the five players with the best shots, ranked by realistic chance.

Subscribe now

1. Noah Fifita, QB, Arizona

The preseason All-Big 12 quarterback and the only signal-caller on the media’s first team. Fifita returns as the nation’s active career passing touchdown leader (73) and has already drawn an official “Fifita for Heisman” push from Arizona at Big 12 Media Days. In a Wildcat offense that should be among the conference’s most explosive, he has the experience, volume opportunity, and narrative of a senior finally getting national recognition. If Arizona wins 9–10 games and he piles up 3,500+ yards and 30+ scores, he’s the clearest path to New York for a Big 12 player.

2. LJ Martin, RB, BYU

The reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year and the clear preseason favorite for the same award. Martin rushed for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2025 while adding 36 receptions. He enters his senior year as the centerpiece of a BYU team expected to compete at the top of the league. Workhorse backs on 10-win teams have a real Heisman path (see recent history), and Martin already has the production and conference hardware to build on.

3. Devon Dampier, QB, Utah

The dual-threat star who threw for 2,490 yards and 24 touchdowns while rushing for 835 yards and 10 scores in 2025. Dampier returns for a second year in Salt Lake under new coach Morgan Scalley and gives Utah a proven, dynamic leader. His ability to create big plays with both his arm and legs makes him dangerous if the Utes stay in the upper tier of the conference and generate national buzz.

4. Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State

The preseason Big 12 Newcomer of the Year after transferring from North Texas, where he led the FBS in passing yards and touchdowns. Pairing with former Mean Green teammates and coach Eric Morris, Mestemaker steps into a revitalized Oklahoma State offense. If the Cowboys bounce back strongly and he posts big numbers in Stillwater, the “former mid-major star lights up the Big 12” storyline could carry him deep into the Heisman race.

5. Will Hammond, QB, Texas Tech

The newly named starter for the conference’s preseason favorite. Hammond showed dual-threat flashes in limited 2025 action (680 passing yards, 7 TDs, plus 299 rushing yards and 5 scores) before a knee injury. On a loaded Texas Tech roster expected to contend for a College Football Playoff spot, the volume and winning environment give him a legitimate dark-horse chance if he stays healthy and elevates the Red Raider offense.

Honorable mentions include Cam Cook (RB, West Virginia), Amare Thomas (WR, Houston), and Conner Weigman (QB, Houston). The Big 12’s best shot at a Heisman in 2026 runs through a high-production quarterback or Martin on a team that stays relevant deep into November.

If you’re enjoying this, please subscribe below!

Subscribe now

The Player, The Moment

Barry Sanders was so lightly recruited out of Wichita North High School that his only scholarship offers came from Emporia State, Tulsa, and Oklahoma State. He didn’t even become OSU’s starting running back until his junior year, spending his first two seasons backing up Thurman Thomas and touching the ball only 105 times combined. Then Thomas left for the NFL, the job opened up, and Sanders produced what is still, nearly forty years later, regarded as the single greatest season any running back has ever had at any level of football.

The numbers don’t really look real: 2,628 rushing yards, 37 rushing touchdowns, 39 total touchdowns, 3,250 all-purpose yards; every one of those still an NCAA record today. He averaged 238.9 yards per game. He had four separate 300-yard rushing games in the same season. He scored at least two touchdowns in eleven consecutive games. He won the Heisman in a landslide, accepting it via satellite from Tokyo because Oklahoma State was already overseas for a game against Texas Tech; a game in which he then went out and put up 332 yards and four more touchdowns anyway, hours after the trophy was in hand.

There was no NIL in 1988. A season that’s still statistically untouched by anyone since produced zero off-field dollars for the player who did it.

So what would that season actually be worth today? I built an estimate, and it comes with a real wrinkle.

The Methodology

Same approach as always: comparing against real, reported modern NIL valuations for the closest available comps. But Sanders’ case surfaces something the RG3 estimate didn’t have to deal with directly. Position matters enormously in today’s NIL market, and running backs get hit the hardest by it.

The real numbers are stark. Even the best running backs in the country right now are valued far below top quarterbacks:

• Arch Manning currently sits at the top of the sport at a reported $5.3–6.8 million

• The single highest-valued running back in the country, Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love, is valued around $1.5–1.6 million, roughly a quarter of Manning’s number

• Typical elite running backs generally land in the $800,000–$2 million range, even with major production, largely because touches, ball-control offenses, and injury risk make the position a harder sell to collectives and brands than a quarterback or a true alpha receiver

That gap exists for real market reasons, not just old-school bias, but it also means even a legendary running back season starts from a lower ceiling than an equivalent quarterback season would.

Where Barry Sanders Lands

Here’s the case for busting through that ceiling anyway: Sanders’ 1988 season isn’t just “a great running back year,” it’s a genuinely unrepeated statistical anomaly; records that have stood for nearly four decades despite a much faster, much higher-scoring modern game. That level of mythology has real commercial value on its own; a player who is still, to this day, the answer to “greatest single season ever” is a marketing story most current players simply don’t have access to, regardless of position.

Balancing the real positional discount against a season that’s genuinely without peer, Sanders lands well above the current running back ceiling, but still short of what a top-tier modern quarterback commands, because that positional gap is real and wouldn’t fully disappear just because the season was historic.

There’s also a market-size factor worth being honest about, same as with Baylor in the RG3 piece. Stillwater is a town of about 48,000 people, an hour’s drive from both Oklahoma City and Tulsa; by any modern measure, one of the smallest true media markets housing a major college football program in the country. A player at Texas or Ohio State gets a built-in marketing multiplier just from campus size and local media saturation that a player at Oklahoma State simply doesn’t have access to, regardless of how good he is.

That’s actually part of what makes this pick fun, and it’s not a coincidence that Oklahoma State is also this newsletter’s Dark Horse pick for 2026: this is a program that has produced legitimate, sport-altering talent out of a market a fraction of the size of its rivals, more than once. If Eric Morris’s roster overhaul pays off this season, it’ll be the same basic story playing out again, a small-market program producing outsized results. Sanders’ number below already accounts for that market discount; it’s also a reminder of exactly how much he had to overcome to get that number as high as it is.

*Estimated 1988 NIL value: $3.4 million

That’s more than double the highest-valued running back in the country today, and still meaningfully behind the Arch Mannings of the world. Was I too conservative; does a season this untouchable deserve to blow through the position discount entirely? Or does the modern math hold up even for a legend like this? Tell me in the comments.

Next week in Before the Bag: a Big 12 legend who once posted 819 total yards in a single game; a record that still stands; on a team that finished the year with a losing record. He'd go on to become a three-time Super Bowl champion. His college numbers were just as ridiculous as you'd expect.

*These are opinion-based estimates for entertainment, not real financial claims.

For paid subscribers only — please don’t forward or repost.

The Player, The Moment

In 1990, Ty Detmer threw for 5,188 yards and 41 touchdowns, adding 5,022 yards of total offense, numbers that would be enormous by today’s spread-offense standards and were nearly unthinkable in 1990, an era of run-heavy, ground-and-pound college football. He broke 42 NCAA records in that single season. The signature moment came in just the second game of the year: a 28-21 upset of defending national champion Miami in Provo, with Detmer throwing for 406 yards and three touchdowns against a Hurricanes defense that was supposed to be untouchable. He won the Heisman in a landslide, finishing with nearly 300 more points than the runner-up. By the time his career ended, he’d broken 59 NCAA records and left with 15,031 career passing yards, an NCAA record at the time, still fifth all-time today, more than three decades later.

Here’s the part that makes his story different from everyone else in this series: BYU wasn’t just worried about NIL not existing yet, they were worried nobody outside Utah would even notice the season while it was happening. Detmer played his conference schedule outside the sport’s power structure at the time, and BYU’s sports information staff ran what amounted to a full public-relations campaign; mailers, media outreach, a “neck-tie” branding push, specifically to make sure Heisman voters knew who he was. The stats alone, it turns out, weren’t considered enough to guarantee attention. They had to manufacture the spotlight themselves.

There was no NIL in 1990, obviously. But the deeper irony is that BYU was already fighting the exact battle every school fights in the NIL era: the battle for attention; they just had to do it with press releases instead of a collective.

So what would that season be worth today, in a media environment that would have made Detmer’s numbers go viral on their own? I built an estimate.

Read more

Tier 1: Loaded

Texas Tech - Three linebackers made some form of the 2026 preseason all-conference team, which tells you almost everything. Ben Roberts is a lock for first-team honors after 90-101 tackles (depending on the source) and multiple takeaways a season ago, and he’s finally stepping out of teammate Jacob Rodriguez’s shadow now that Rodriguez (last year’s Defensive Player of the Year) is off to the NFL. Austin Romaine joins him after himself transferring in from Kansas State (you good, K-State?), where he led the Wildcats in tackles. And if that weren’t enough, Texas Tech also added Corey Platt Jr., who led Houston’s (you good, Coogs?) linebacker room in run stuffs a year ago. Reminder: this is the same program that already bought the deepest receiver room in the conference. Apparently the plan is to buy the linebacker room, as well.

BYU - Cade Uluave transferred in from Cal and immediately profiled as the best linebacker available in the entire portal cycle, racking up 97 tackles a season ago and an elite blend of speed and power. Paired with Isaiah Glasker, a legitimate All-American-caliber player when healthy, this is a top-tier duo on paper. The catch is real, though: Glasker battled injuries for stretches of last season and enters 2026 with his health status still a real question mark, which is exactly the kind of uncertainty that could turn a top-tier duo into just a very good one-man show.

Tier 2: Quality, Real Playmakers

Colorado - Gideon Lampron is legitimately one of the best individual linebackers in the conference regardless of the team around him, racking up 123 tackles and 18.5 tackles for loss a season ago. Whatever else is uncertain about Colorado this year, Lampron himself isn’t part of the question.

Kansas - Trey Lathan, a West Virginia transfer, was an instant-impact addition last season, leading the Jayhawks in tackles (86) while adding 7 tackles for loss, a sack and a half, two fumble recoveries and an interception. A genuinely underrated player on a team that doesn’t get much national attention.

Arizona State - Owen Long, a Colorado State transfer, joins returning pieces Martell Hughes and Zyrus Fiaseu to give the Sun Devils a solid, if not flashy, linebacker corps; one of the few units on this roster that isn’t in full reset mode.

Arizona - Brings back a genuinely experienced linebacker corps, headlined by Taye Brown, who posted a career-high 93 tackles in his second season as a starter, and Chase Kennedy, a converted edge rusher who combined for 96 tackles and two forced fumbles in Danny Gonzales’s hybrid 3-3-5 scheme. Between Brown, Kennedy, and depth pieces Myron Robinson and Jabari Mann, this group logged over 1,500 combined defensive snaps a year ago; continuity that most of the conference simply doesn’t have at the position.

Utah - Leaning hard on one proven anchor to carry a room in transition. Johnathan Hall, who led the Utes in tackles a year ago and has taken over as the self-described “quarterback of the defense,” returns as the unquestioned centerpiece, but longtime starters Lander Barton (now with the NFL’s Chargers) and Levani Damuni are both gone, handing a full-time starting job to Trey Reynolds, who has just four career starts. One proven star, one real question mark next to him.

Baylor - Banking on a redemption story at linebacker. Travion Barnes arrived last year as the reigning Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year, expected to anchor the room, then suffered a season-ending ankle injury just four games in, on top of what he’s described as a genuinely difficult year personally. He’s back healthy for a final season, now the clear leader of a trio with Kyland Reed (who started nine games as his injury replacement) and sophomore Kaleb Burns, playing under new defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman. On paper, a fully healthy Barnes gives Baylor one of the better linebacker cores in this tier; the question is simply whether “on paper” finally translates to the field.

Cincinnati - Leans on one of the few holdovers from before Scott Satterfield's tenure: Jonathan Thompson, a fifth-year starter who took over the job midway through last season and finished with 73 tackles, now steps into the room's clear leadership role. Simeon Coleman, a freshman All-American two years ago, returns alongside him, but the room is otherwise thin; Cincinnati lost linebacker Jake Golday to the NFL and brought in a new position coach as part of a broader defensive overhaul under first-year coordinator Nate Woody. Thompson gives the room a proven, experienced anchor; everything else around him is a projection.

Tier 3: Real Question Marks

Kansas State - The Wildcats didn’t just lose production, they watched their best linebacker walk to a division rival: Austin Romaine left for Texas Tech. That’s the second straight offseason section in this newsletter where Kansas State shows up on the wrong end of a Texas Tech transaction (Ouch!).

Houston - Same story as Kansas State, different name: Corey Platt Jr., a legitimately disruptive run-stuffer, is now wearing Texas Tech red and black instead of Houston red. The Cougars have real talent elsewhere on the roster, but the linebacker room takes a real hit here.

TCU - Both starters from last season, Caleb Lamsour and Namdi Obiazor, are gone, so this is a real changing of the guard. Max Carroll, a four-star signee who got extended reps due to injuries the last couple of seasons, steps into a featured role, joined by Virginia Tech transfer Michael Short. It's a green group by experience, but Sonny Dykes has called this the deepest overall roster he's had at TCU, and six of seven defensive linemen return in front of them, which should make life easier for a linebacker corps that's mostly unproven at this level.

Tier 4: Tackle Optional

West Virginia - This is a legitimately unusual situation: nine of West Virginia's ten scholarship linebackers heading into 2026 are either true freshmen or transfers; only a handful of players in the room have any real West Virginia game experience at all. Colorado State transfer Chase Wilson is the headliner, having racked up 205 tackles across his last two seasons before arriving in Morgantown, and Reid Carrico is one of the few returning starters, with real breakout potential in Zac Alley's defense. Still, a room this dependent on new faces meshing quickly is as much of a projection as anything else on this list. DC Alley says he's confident, but "confident" and "proven" are different things in August.

Iowa State - The conference's one true ground-zero rebuild; none of the three projected starting linebackers (Montreze Smith, Sullivan Schlimgen, Carson Willich) played for the Cyclones last season, and Smith arrives straight from FCS Austin Peay. The silver lining is new head coach Jimmy Rogers and defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit, who built a Washington State defense that ranked 15th nationally in yards allowed a year ago, and brought pieces of that system with them to Ames. This isn't a room lacking talent so much as a room with zero shared history; whether that scheme can make a brand-new trio functional by September is the real question.

Oklahoma State - One linebacker room caught in the middle of the program’s total roster overhaul. Trip White returns as the lone piece with real starting experience, surrounded by a wave of transfers (Tate Romney from Arizona State, Ethan Wesloski from North Texas, Dallas Winner-Johnson from Tulane, among others) brought in to rebuild the position almost from scratch. Same story as the rest of this roster: talent imported in bulk, chemistry still to be determined.

UCF - Actually has a real building block here, more than the “incomplete” label suggests: Lewis Carter, an Oklahoma transfer, led the Knights in tackles (92, with 52 solo) in his first season in Orlando and earned All-Big 12 Honorable Mention production that reads like a hint of a bigger breakout still coming, not a ceiling. The rest of the room is thinner, but Carter alone gives UCF a legitimate answer at the position most of this tier doesn’t have.

The Favorite (Obviously)

Texas Tech enters the season as the consensus preseason favorite, and also as the center of the single weirdest offseason storyline in the conference. Tech’s QB1, Brendan Sorsby, was ruled permanently ineligible by the NCAA, won a court injunction that briefly un-ruled that, and then he dropped the whole thing to enter the supplemental draft, which he was later denied. Whew, talking about a roller coaster. But wait, that’s not all! It was reported that the Big 12 conference office and Texas Tech’s own athletic department were taking shots at each other, with actual legal threats thrown around. That’s not a typical “well, we’ll miss him” storyline; that’s an offseason soap opera. Somehow, Texas Tech is still the favorite. Which says a lot about the gap between their roster and everyone else’s. Will Hammond is stepping in as QB1, and Coach McGuire stated he would be ready Week 1. If Hammond is as good as, or better than, he was before last year’s injury, behind a roster that’s already the deepest in the conference, then Texas Tech fans should go ahead and book their hotel in Arlington.

The Field Chasing Them

BYU is the clear co-favorite. Bear Bachmeier returns after winning the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year and taking BYU to the conference title game. Running back LJ Martin, reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, passed on the NFL to return for his senior season. The defense gets a new coordinator rather than a full overhaul and returns several key pieces. The biggest question mark is the receiving room, which will have to replace its top two options from a year ago. If they get that piece right, this is about as complete a roster as anyone in the conference. Any wobble in Texas Tech’s quarterback situation, and BYU is the team built to capitalize.

Utah enters a genuinely new era under first-time head coach Morgan Scalley, promoted after 21 seasons as the program's defensive coordinator, and he's inheriting an 11-win roster rather than rebuilding one. The Utes kept exactly what made them good: a two-quarterback rotation, with Devon Dampier (2,490 passing yards, 835 rushing yards, 34 total touchdowns) and Byrd Ficklin splitting snaps, behind a run game anchored by Wayshawn Parker, who led the Big 12 at 6.6 yards per carry. The one real red flag: Utah is replacing all five starting offensive linemen, which means the identity of this team is proven, but the group tasked with protecting it is almost entirely new. New coaches inheriting good rosters rather than rebuilding them tend to overperform preseason expectations; worth watching how much the O-line turnover complicates that pattern.

Arizona is the conference’s most slept-on contender. Noah Fifita is back after a resurgent second season under Brent Brennan that produced nine wins; one of just three seasons this century the program has hit that mark, and this year’s schedule sets up a stretch in the final five weeks (at Texas Tech, vs. TCU, vs. Utah, at Kansas State, home vs. Arizona State) that could single-handedly decide who’s playing in Arlington. If Arizona goes .500 or better in that gauntlet, they’re not just a contender; they’re the team that decided everyone else’s season too.

Houston has the clearest, most specific path to Arlington of anyone chasing Texas Tech, and it runs through one night: September 19th, in Lubbock, under the lights in primetime on FOX. Beat writers already have Houston picked for third in the conference, and the case is real. Quarterback Conner Weigman is back after throwing for 2,705 yards and 25 touchdowns while adding another 700 yards and 11 scores on the ground, and receiver Amare Thomas is a legitimate All-America candidate coming off a 67-catch, 966-yard, 12-touchdown season. This is a team with actual firepower, not just a plucky underdog story.

Dark-Horse (Can there be two?)

Oklahoma State is the trendy "buy low" pick, and for good reason: Eric Morris didn't just take the Stillwater job, he brought roughly two dozen North Texas players with him, headlined by QB Drew Mestemaker, who threw for over 4,300 yards a season ago, and receiver Wyatt Young, who led the entire Big 12 in receiving yards while playing for a different team in a different conference. All told, it's closer to 55 transfers and 80 new players walking in at once, which means Morris didn't rebuild a roster so much as relocate one, address label and all. The receipts back it up: that North Texas offense scored 45-plus points nine times last season, while Oklahoma State failed to crack 27 in a single game all year. A team that lost by 66 points to Oregon in 2025 being talked about as a bowl team in 2026 is either a remarkable turnaround story or a cautionary tale about trusting transfer-portal hype. Time will tell which.

TCU has quietly won more games than any other team in the Big 12 over the last four seasons: 36 wins and a national championship game appearance under Sonny Dykes, and somehow still gets talked about like an afterthought behind Texas Tech, BYU, and Arizona State. This year's rebuild is real: starting quarterback Josh Hoover transferred out after throwing for 9,629 career yards, and Dykes went looking for his replacement in an unlikely place, the Ivy League, landing Harvard graduate transfer Jaden Craig, who threw for 5,299 yards and 48 touchdowns over two seasons at Harvard. The bigger fix might be simpler than a new quarterback, though: TCU went 8-0 last season when they didn't turn the ball over multiple times, and lost four of five when they did. Clean that up, and a program that's already out-won everyone else in the conference doesn't need much else to go right.

Why Not Us?

Arizona State enters a genuine reset year; the Sun Devils are replacing their quarterback, their leading receiver, and effectively rebuilding their running back room all at once, after Sam Leavitt left for a big-money LSU deal and Jordyn Tyson, as good as any receiver in the Big 12 when healthy, went 8th overall in the NFL Draft. The answer at quarterback is Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley, a live arm who went 4-7 as a starter last season with 12 interceptions and real questions as a processor, leaning on a receiver room led by Colorado transfer Omarion Miller, rated the best transfer receiver class in the country, and a running back room anchored by a healthy Kyson Brown. The one thing firmly in ASU's favor is continuity: Kenny Dillingham turned down real interest from Michigan, signed a new contract, and brought back every on-field assistant from a team that made the Big 12 title game two years ago. This is a program that won a conference title from a preseason-last position not that long ago, so writing them off entirely feels premature, but reloading at quarterback, receiver, and running back all in the same offseason, with a brutal schedule opening with the longest road trip in program history, is a real question mark, not a formality.

Kansas State is this year’s best bounce-back candidate. After being tabbed as a conference contender a season ago and finishing 6-6 instead, the Wildcats are betting on a healthier roster and a defensive line anchored by Wendell Gregory to get them back into the top half of the league. Fair warning: national outlets picked K-State to take a step back last year too, and got it completely wrong in the other direction; this is a program that’s become genuinely difficult to project, which either means buy low now or wait for actual evidence in September.

Baylor is a program under real pressure disguised as a program with a shiny new quarterback. Dave Aranda enters the season on what multiple outlets are calling the hottest seat in the Big 12, coming off a 5-7 finish that would be his fourth losing season in five years if 2026 goes wrong. The offseason answer was landing DJ Lagway, a former five-star recruit out of the Florida transfer portal, in a move reported to carry a price tag in the $3 million range, Baylor's single largest bet of the NIL era, by a wide margin. Aranda also gave up defensive play-calling entirely, handing the reins to new coordinator Joe Klanderman after admitting the dual-role experiment had failed. Between the quarterback investment and the coaching staff shake-up, this reads less like a normal season and more like Aranda's last real swing to keep his job, which makes Baylor probably the highest-stakes storyline in the entire "Why Not Us?" tier, regardless of where they actually finish.

There’s Always Next Year

West Virginia: Overhauled. (New roster, same question marks.)

Colorado: Hopeful. (Aren’t we all.)

Kansas: Fading. (Historically, right around Halloween.)

UCF: Retooling. (Again.)

Cincinnati: Transitioning. (Ask again in three years.)

Iowa State: Blank-Slate. (Literally; zero returning starters.)

Whether you’re here for deep dives, weekly updates, or premium historical NIL valuations, this page gives you everything you need to understand what we publish, how often, and what you get as a subscriber.

What You Get as a Free Reader

Free readers receive regular Big 12 content designed to keep you informed and engaged:

• Conference‑wide analysis
  Rankings, tiers, and performance breakdowns — like the Big 12 WR Room Tiers.

• NIL Trends & Momentum
  Quick, digestible updates on which programs are rising or falling in the NIL landscape.

• Occasional free features
  Short takes, reactions, and conference‑wide observations.

Free content gives you a strong sense of the Conference Weekly voice and approach; analytical, structured, and grounded in real data.

What Paid Subscribers Receive

Paid subscribers unlock the full Conference Weekly experience, including all premium content and archives.

Weekly Before the Bag (Premium Series)

A deep‑dive into one legendary college football season each week.
Each installment includes:

• Player profile and season context

• Performance‑based NIL valuation methodology

• Estimated NIL value for that season

• Exclusive analysis available only to subscribers

Weekly Big 12 Recruiting Status

A conference‑wide recruiting update covering:

• New commitments and decommitments

• Transfer portal additions and departures

Full Access to All Premium Archives

Subscribers unlock every premium post ever published, including all past Before the Bag installments and recruiting updates.

Subscriber‑Only Commentary & Community Access

Paid subscribers can:

• Comment on premium posts

• Participate in discussions

• Submit questions for future articles

• Shape upcoming Before the Bag selections

Season‑Long Bonus Features

During the season, subscribers receive additional premium content such as:

• Week-to-week game predictions

• Special‑edition Before the Bag features

• Position room team rankings

Our Weekly Publishing Schedule

Here’s what you can expect each week:

• Weekly: Before the Bag (Premium)

• Weekly: Big 12 Recruiting Status (Premium)

• Regular: Free Big 12 analysis & NIL trends

• Seasonal: Bonus NIL and recruiting features

Consistency is the backbone of Conference Weekly — subscribers know exactly what they’re getting.

Join Us

If you enjoy the free content, consider becoming a paid subscriber to unlock the full experience; weekly premium features, recruiting intelligence, NIL projections, and the complete Before the Bag series.

Your support helps this publication grow and ensures we can continue delivering high‑quality Big 12 coverage every week.

The Player, The Moment

In 2011, Robert Griffin III did something that felt almost impossible at the time: he made Baylor football must-watch television. Baylor hadn’t posted a winning Big 12 record in over a decade. RG3 threw for 4,293 yards, ran for another 699, accounted for 47 total touchdowns, completed better than 72% of his passes, and dragged the Bears to a 10-win season and an Alamo Bowl win; the program’s best finish in a generation. He won the Heisman Trophy by one of the closest margins in the award’s history, edging Andrew Luck. Off the field, he was a legitimate track star with real Olympic-trial hurdles credentials, exactly the kind of crossover, highlight-reel athlete that would break the internet today.

There was no NIL in 2011. Griffin left Baylor with a Heisman, a degree, and functionally zero dollars earned off of one of the most electric individual seasons college football had ever seen.

So what would he actually be worth in today’s market? I built an estimate, and the number might surprise you.

The Methodology

Since we obviously can’t know what RG3 would have actually signed for, this is built by comparing him against real, reported NIL valuations for similarly-profiled modern players; Heisman-caliber dual threats who took a non-blue-blood program on an improbable run. A few benchmarks worth knowing:

• Shedeur Sanders peaked around a reported $6.2 million NIL valuation at Colorado, largely driven by his father’s fame, a viral turnaround story, and massive social reach — despite not winning a Heisman

• Arch Manning has carried valuations in the $3.8–6.8 million range without even being a full-time starter for most of that stretch, almost entirely on name recognition and market size (Texas)

• Caleb Williams, as a reigning Heisman winner having a rockier follow-up season, still held a reported valuation around $2.8 million

The formula roughly weighs: market/program size, team success and media exposure, position premium (quarterback always sits at the top), and the “viral moment” factor; how shareable and story-driven the season itself is.

Where RG3 Lands

RG3’s case is unusually strong on the “story” and “highlight” factors specifically; a dual-threat Heisman winner with track-star athleticism and a background-to-breakout narrative is about as made-for-modern-media as a college football story gets, arguably more shareable than most of the names above. Where he loses ground is program size: Baylor in 2011, even after the breakout season, was not pulling in Texas- or USC-level attention. Worth noting the market too: Waco sits at roughly 140,000 people, wedged almost exactly halfway between Dallas and Austin rather than being its own major media market. Before 2011, Baylor simply wasn't a program most of the country was paying attention to; the Heisman run is what put Waco on the map nationally, not the other way around. RG3 had to generate his own spotlight, with no built-in market size doing any of the work for him.

His combination of a breakout, viral‑level season and a smaller market, puts him in the territory comparable to peak Shedeur Sanders; a superstar turning a non‑national program into a headline act.

*Estimated 2011 NIL value: $4.6 million

That's real money for a single college season, but it's also a number built almost entirely on how good the story was, not program size or existing hype. Is a transcendent individual season enough to overcome playing at a smaller program, or does market size cap you no matter how good you are? And with Baylor now a very different, better-funded program than it was in 2011; would a repeat performance be worth even more today?

Next week in Before the Bag: the single greatest season any college running back has ever had; records that still stand nearly forty years later; belonging to a player who was so overlooked in high school he only had three scholarship offers.

New Before the Bag drops every week. Subscribe free so you don’t miss the next one.

Subscribe now

*These are opinion-based estimates for entertainment, not real financial claims.*

For paid subscribers only — please don’t forward or repost.

Trending up

Texas Tech - There’s no doubt about it: Texas Tech is the conference’s NIL heavyweight. In 2026, the Red Raiders are estimated to be worth $36.3 million, good for 10th nationally and ahead of every other Big 12 program. They are also in the same neighborhood as Texas A&M and Alabama. Some reporting has Tech as high as 15th nationally in pure transfer-portal spending specifically. A large part of this is owed to Oil and Gas booster Cody Campbell, whose wealth has fueled the program’s rapid growth. Besides Campbell, Tech has several other high-profile donors and a top-tier NIL collective. The results are already on the field. A first-ever Big 12 title, a CFP appearance, and the ability to poach top-level talent straight from the portal. Clearly, this isn’t a one-off; it is a sustained financial advantage the rest of the conference must compete with. Unless another team steps up, NIL will ensure Tech stays at the top of the conference.

Arizona State - Kenny Dillingham’s program has performed well since joining the Big 12, including a Big 12 Championship in 2024 and a strong 8-5 season last year. But, it’s spending like a team that wants to be a consistent CFP contender. ASU’s transfer portal class was ranked No. 15 by 247Sports - led by Colorado’s Omarion Miller, who is the country’s top receiver transfer. This portal investment, combined with the Big 12 title game appearance and CFP run two seasons ago, suggests ASU has not only closed the coaching gap, but also the spending gap.

Houston - Less flashy in the headlines than Tech or ASU, but the roster buildout under Willie Fritz is real; QB Conner Weigman (a Texas A&M transfer), running back Makhi Hughes (Oregon transfer), and receiver Amare Thomas represent exactly the kind of portal additions that cost real money to land. An impressive 10-3 season shows the spending is translating into wins, not just splashy names. Houston is making obvious strides to challenge the top Big 12 contenders, and its tapping into NIL to make that happen.

Uncertain / Trending Down

Colorado - The Deion Sanders-era spotlight brought Colorado a level of NIL attention that punched well above the program’s historical weight. Despite the hype, Colorado is losing players in the portal (receiver Dre’lon Miller among them) rather than adding marquee names - a possible sign that the financial momentum isn’t what it was. Worth watching whether it’s a temporary dip or the start of a real correction.

Baylor - Dave Aranda is reportedly on a short leash heading into this season, and there isn’t much public signal of Baylor making the kind of splashy, headline-grabbing NIL moves that Tech, ASU, or Houston have made. The issue isn’t necessarily related to spending - it could just be a more targeted approach - but it’s notably absent from this off-season’s “programs on the rise” discussion.

Arizona State - Kenny Dillingham didn’t just reload, he imported the best transfer receiver class in the country, according to 247Sports. Omarion Miller leads the group after posting 45 catches, 808 yards, and 8 touchdowns last season despite inconsistent QB play. Now he gets a SEC-caliber quarterback throwing to him. Reed Harris of Boston College and Raiden Vines-Bright of Washington add some real juice. This room has more firepower than anyone in the league if the new QB holds up.

UCF - Ten returning starters overall, and the receiver room is a genuine strength headlined by Waden Charles and Duane Thomas Jr. Continuity is rare in the portal era, and UCF has it here. The question for the Knights is scoring more consistently as a team, not the receiver talent itself.

Texas Tech - Micah Hudson, the former 5-star and highest-rated recruit in program history, enters year three and is finally being talked about as a breakout candidate. Add captain Coy Eakin, speedy transfer additions Jalen Jones and Donte Lee Jr., a returning Malcolm Simmons, and four-star freshman Chase Campbell, this is deep even by Texas Tech’s now-standard “buy the roster” approach. The real uncertainty isn’t the receivers, it’s the quarterback situation. With Sorsby out and Will Hammond questionable for Week 1, the bigger issue is whether Texas Tech will even have a reliable passer to distribute the ball.

Tier 2: Solid, Building Around a Clear QB1

Houston -Amare Thomas is a proven returning First-Team All-Big 12 threat, and true freshman Keisean Henderson (the No. 1-rated QB in the 2026 class) gives Houston a legitimate long-term connection to build around now. Weigman under center in year one gives this room real short-term firepower too.

Oklahoma State - Wyatt Young followed head coach Eric Morris (and QB Drew Mestemaker) over from North Texas, where he led the Big 12 in receiving yards a season ago (1,264, third-most in the FBS). That’s about as direct a “bring my guy with me” transfer storyline as it gets, and it should translate quickly given the built-in chemistry.

Baylor - Dave Aranda went shopping and got slot man Gavin Freeman (Oklahoma State) and former blue-chip transfer Dre’lon Miller (Colorado). On paper it’s a solid, if unspectacular, receiver room. The bigger swing factor for Baylor is whether the QB play shows up consistently.

Kansas - Buffalo transfer Nik McMillian (62 catches, 981 yards last season) is a real portal win, and Cam Pickett returns as a proven complementary piece. Quietly underrated room for a team picked outside the top of the conference.

Tier 3: Reloading, Real Questions Attached

TCU - Losing All-Big 12 First-Teamer Eric McAlister (111 catches, 1,952 yards over two seasons) and Joseph Manjack IV is a big subtraction. FCS transfer Jordan Dwyer steps into the WR1 role after a huge season at Idaho, and four-star sophomore Terry Shelton is a name to watch, but this room needs guys to prove it at the Big 12 level who haven’t yet.

Kansas State - Portal reinforcements are in, and the staff likes the direction of the room, but there’s no marquee returning name carrying this group yet. It reads as a “we’ll see in camp” unit right now.

Arizona - Described around the league as a solid, if unspectacular, group; not a weakness, but not why Arizona wins games. Noah Fifita will spread it around; nobody’s projecting a Big 12-leading receiver here.

Cincinnati - Losing leading receiver Cyrus Allen and his 13 touchdown catches is a real hit, but the Bearcats reloaded hard through the portal; Cade Wolford (Kent State), JV Gibson (Oklahoma), Larenzo Fenner (South Dakota), and Malachi Henry (Central Arkansas) give Cincinnati what's being called one of the deepest receiving corps in the conference on paper. The catch: last year's offensive success came almost entirely against weaker opponents, and stalled against the Big 12's better defenses (BYU, Utah, TCU, Arizona).

Utah - Utah State transfer Braden Pegan followed his offensive coordinator (Kevin McGiven) to Salt Lake City after a breakout 2025 season, and by all spring reports he's already establishing himself as the clear WR1 in a new-look offense. Beyond him, this is a fairly unproven room; worth watching how fast the pieces around Pegan develop, especially with a new-ish offensive staff installing its system.

Tier 4: The Real Question Mark

BYU - This is the receiver room to watch for the wrong reasons. BYU lost Chase Roberts, had Parker Kingston depart the program unexpectedly following an arrest, and then lost Cody Hagen to retirement for injury reasons; three significant losses at once. Multiple BYU beat outlets have flagged this as the single biggest question mark on the entire roster heading into a season where BYU is a legitimate Big 12 title contender otherwise. Oregon transfer Kyler Kasper and true freshman Jaron Pula are being counted on to grow up fast.

Iowa State - Hardest team in the conference to grade right now, and not really about the receivers specifically. Matt Campbell's departure took more than 50 players with him, and first-year head coach Jimmy Rogers is rebuilding practically the entire roster from scratch, receiver room included. There isn't a returning name to anchor around yet. This is a "revisit once fall camp reporting actually exists" situation rather than one where I'd guess at a grade today.

Colorado - Lost Dre’lon Miller to the portal this cycle, adding to an offense that already has real questions at running back and along the offensive line. Not a good offseason for this unit.

West Virginia - The Mountaineers lost Cam Vaughn, who would have been their most talented returning receiver (35 catches, 541 yards, 4 TD) to the portal, on top of a broader roster teardown that has WVU widely described as rebuilding "virtually its entire roster" heading into 2026. Even rival beat writers are pegging this as a step-back year for the program.

Subscribe now